It isn't over until the fat lady sings, FB and that dirty bitch still has a few weeks to go. The debates have not happened yet, and the debates have changed things a great deal in the past. Besides the debate and undecided voters, turnout could still be an unexpected factor. Polls have no ultimately reliable way of predicting turnout. Gallup's poll assumes a 55% turnout, which might well be completely incorrect.
That being said, a large number of people still consider themselves, "swing voters" and they are only leaning towards Bush because of the convention post-bounce, which I believe has been artificially extended by the CBS scandal and the swift boat ads from before. I see the election going back to being close, and many polls are already showing that.
The Time poll shows Bush dropping from a 12 point lead in registered voters to a 4 point lead. The FOX News poll shows a similar 2 point spread and an increase, oddly, in self-identified undecideds/swing voters
This election is far from over until the debates are over, undecided voters go down in number (closer to the end of October), we see if any unexpected events happen at the last moment and once polls start to stabilize.
I am not citing any "likely voter" statistics because I have lost nearly complete faith in their meaning at this point. A likely voter in March is not a likely voter in November, for obvious reasons. Some people pay attention late, and some people lose attention later in the game. Others start to care less or more. Some might say they will vote and then not get out. Ultimately, likely voters are a stab in the dark. Either a polling agencies shady definition of who they believe is likely to vote, an assumption on turnout or a mathematical manipulation of the registered voters based on bias, a la Democracy Corps or the Wall Street Journal.
As far as I am concerned, the race is still pretty much a statistical dead heat where it counts among registered voters and it will probably remain that way. This race is Bush's to lose with the debates anyways 
By the way, good to see you bastards again 
