Topic: 2004 Election Prediction as of 7/11/04
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
"We are a mass of seething fury, elected as your judge and jury. You stand accused of murder, vanity, and evil crimes against humanity."-Andy Martin
Re: 2004 Election Prediction as of 7/11/04
There were many a flaw in that "21 reasons why Bush will win" list.
Oh, you might want to remove the "[url]" from your URL.
Re: 2004 Election Prediction as of 7/11/04
Many thanks moldman 
P.S. I read that 21 thing and I agree, it had many holes in it, I put that up more cause of the fact of the Election Prediction map and stats showed Kerry winning.
"We are a mass of seething fury, elected as your judge and jury. You stand accused of murder, vanity, and evil crimes against humanity."-Andy Martin
Re: 2004 Election Prediction as of 7/11/04
I have it as being close. I won't post my actual predicted map, because I don't like being wrong. Right now, Kerry would probably win because of the VP bubble he is floating on.
It will be close no matter who wins, and the effects of that could be very bad on the political landscape of this country. The following is a nightmare scenario in which the election makes 2000 look like a legitimate landslide by Bush. I really hope I am wrong, below is my worst fear.
If there is a tie, this nation will likely reach the breaking point. After Florida being contested by Democrats, the alleged Supreme Court appointment, the alleged Nader effect and George W. Bush losing the popular vote.... this country cannot take another close election.
My prediction is a nightmare scenario in which on election night, the electoral vote tally comes to 270-268, in favor of Kerry. Kerry wins the popular vote by a good margin (although a lower margin might underscore more how divided the nation is becoming).
Then one electoral guy for Kerry abstains, or one switches entirely. Maybe he/she is re-assigned by the Maine congressional district (their state constitution allows two delegates to be chosen by the state legislature).
All in all, a nightmare scenario would have to involve the Supreme Court. In my nightmare scenario, the Supreme Court is giving Bush by a 5-4 partisan decision the right to take Maine's congressional district's electoral vote, making it a tie.
The House by a small margin approves of Bush as President. Edwards is the Vice President by one vote in the Senate.
It basically ends with Bush losing the popular vote, not winning the electoral vote or even tying legitimately to most people because of Maine, taking an electoral vote only with a Supreme Court decision and basically being appointed by the House of Representatives after multiple votes, serving with Edwards as a Vice President.
After the election, reports of voter fraud on both sides break out. Edwards is under enormous Republican pressure to resign. Same for Bush. Some try to abolish the electoral college with an amendment, probably.
Bush is a lameduck President either way. Someone will probably try to assassinate him if the election really is this close.
Whether they succeed or not is almost irrelevant to the situation. The White House is divided, the electoral college is divided and the nation is divided.
It is argued by some that democracy has failed, argued by liberals Bush stole the election and Bill O'Reilly and other conservatives will likely play it off as liberal media inventions of delusion.
George W. Bush will probably become the most hated man in America if this happens, but Ralph Nader is in the running.
The electoral map for this scenario can be seen here:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESID … ew+Version
This is just a slightly fun "what if" scenario in which the country's political system basically goes to hell.
Re: 2004 Election Prediction as of 7/11/04
My refutation of the 21 reasons.
1. No more drunk driving lightning bolts
I doubt this story had anything to do with the outcome of the election, most people probably didn't care. It didn't get much coverage anyways, as I recall.
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2. Bush defeated the incumbent party in a time of peace and prosperity
Bush lost the popular vote, guess someone forgot to tell this guy that.
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3. Democratic get-out-the-vote
Democrats are more united than they ever have been, and Nader is having trouble getting on the ballot.
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4. National Security and the War on Terror
Bush's approval on terrorism is only 52-55% in most polls, and most people don't regard terrorism as an important election issue as compared to Iraq or the economy, where Bush receives much lower marks.
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5. The perfect timing of the economic cycle
Bush's approval remains low on the economy in key battleground states and Kerry is still preferred.
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6. The perfect timing of the national conventions
The bounce will end by the election, and most of them are just polling blurps anyways.
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7. The collective weakness of the Democratic hopefuls.
This is Republican wishful thinking at its finest hour.
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8. Same Sex marriage
FOX Newsflash: Nobody gives a flying monkey's asshole about gay marriage as it pertains to the election.
But two guys on the same ticket? Yeah, guess it looks sort of faggy.
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9. Republican get-out-the-vote
Bush's support among moderates, independents, minorities and many other key voting blocks is very low. His approval is much lower than many incumbents that successfully sought re-election.
Solid base support only works if the turnout is successful, which it may or may not be.
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10. Florida is much more Republican now
Maybe so, but polls still have it as close. Bush needs to win it anyways, in most scenarios.
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11. Redistricting
Just as many
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12. The Base is solid
The base approves of Bush, but the question is how intensely? Liberals don't hate George W. Bush, they want him to lose badly. They dream of nothing else. It haunts their every foot step, their every thought.... it is the core of who they are. I know because I am one of them.
Republicans just passingly approve of the President. Most only do so because the alternative is ultra-liberal Nader or slightly less so Kerry. That means the disenchanted Republicans likely won't vote, which in a close election could be fatal.
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13. Proven leadership
If proven leadership is lying to get into a war, record budget deficits, an over-extended military, horrible net jobs loss, soaring healthcare costs, a dismal security sitution in Iraq and basically being blind-sided by a national security crisis, the month which before you took a vacation...
...yeah, sure thing, W.
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14. New Hampshire is more Republican
Kerry is a local son, as opposed to the boring and Southern Al Gore. I think that can play up and help him, and most polls have it neck and neck.
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15. Minnesota and Iowa are more Republican
Kerry still maintains staggering leads in both states.
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16. Governor Schwarzenegger
Kerry doesn't need to defend California, and he won't fall for that trap. Bush gets less than 35% there in most polls. If Republicans think they can even make California close, they are dreaming.
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17. Ohio's social conservatism
What about Ohio's inner-party divison, horrible Republican governor and the disillusionment of many over Bush on the economy?
Social issues take a backseat to economic issues for most people.
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18. The Deaniacs' pending revolt
This is yet another Republican wet dream with no basis in reality.
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19. Democratic experts still think Dubya's dumb
He is a blithering imbecile.
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20. Giuliani's campaigning
Democrats take New York by 10% or more, I'll bet anyone here on it right now, any amount of money.
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21. Democratic filibusters of Bush's judicial nominees
Nobody gives a damn besides really, really hardcore political junkies, and most of them are already decided anyways.
Re: 2004 Election Prediction as of 7/11/04
Wow cat...you got pretty in depth there, I can't say I have thought about the prediction before, but now that I hear it it does seem a bit scary.
"We are a mass of seething fury, elected as your judge and jury. You stand accused of murder, vanity, and evil crimes against humanity."-Andy Martin
Re: 2004 Election Prediction as of 7/11/04
FUCK Kerry and Bush, they are both pussies!!!
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HOWARD DEAN FOR PRESIDENT!!!!!!!!!!
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Destroyer of Worlds