Topic: Election 2004 results
This year's election might as well be over. That is the conclusion I had a few weeks ago when Bush led by double digits in Gallup, Time and numerous other polls. It is the same one I have now.
I can't call a winner, but I think one overwhelming trend can be confirmed: it is a deadheat. Kerry leaners temporarily went to Bush because of the convention, CBS scandal and the swift boat thing. Now, undecideds are making up their minds and with the debates, partisan division is back in full swing.
This election will be remembered for unusually high turnout in the post-Watergate era. The first election after 9/11. One for the future of the Supreme Court, the economy, the war on terrorism and Iraq. One in which more people were interested earlier on and in more intensity.
The persuadable audience, of course, is actually quite low. When all comes down to it, about 17% as of late September considered themselves swing voters. Most of them, obviously, don't live in battleground states. This is because the big states usually aren't battlegrounds and because there are really less than 10 of them in total.
I'd say a few hundred thousand people will really change their mind, at this point. We are a 49-49 nation, that is the new reality.
Notes on closeness aside, Bush isn't polling above or at 50% in any recent national poll, save ABC (which was over 4 days).
Gallup shows Kerry up by 2, Zogby by 3. His approval is below 50 again, at 47. My theory is the debates are starting to solidify in people's minds. The negative news out of Afghanistan and about WMD (or lackthereof) being in Iraq, obviously didn't help. The September jobs report was largely conceived of as a stinker, as well.
Bush has to win this debate, or he will lose the popular vote. My current map for an election day prediction is this:
Kerry might take Colorado, and he is running ahead in recent Ohio pulls by 1.
Kerry narrows out the popular vote. In this map, Kerry is Red and Bush is blue. Bush ties the electoral college, the Maine vote might be disputed at the SC, Bush would win that dispute too.
Yeah, I hate it too. If he 'wins' like this, someone will probably try to kill him. It is also likely the country will become even more divided, if at all possible. The totals come to 269 269, and Bush wins by a vote in the House of Represenatives.
Note this is only a guess, and that it could still all change w/ an October surprise or of course the 3rd debate.
To me, it is undeniable this will be a close election.